COP31: Turkey Pushes 35% Electrification Target as Leaders Debate Fossil Fuels

World leaders are gathering in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31 as nearly 200 countries seek progress on electrification, clean energy investment and the transition away from fossil fuels. The Turkish presidency is promoting a target to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, while negotiations continue over how countries should reduce their dependence on coal, oil and gas.

Speeches by presidents and heads of government are scheduled to take place on Wednesday and Thursday, 11 and 12 November. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine are among those expected to address the conference.

The discussions are taking place against a difficult climate and economic backdrop. Greenhouse gas emissions remain high, while geopolitical conflicts, inflation and competing domestic priorities are placing pressure on governments’ climate policies.

Former French Prime Minister Laurent Fabius, who presided over the 2015 Paris climate conference, said leaders needed to focus not only on announcing commitments but also on explaining how they would be implemented. He identified implementation as a central issue for the Antalya negotiations.

Turkey puts electrification at the centre of COP31

Turkey’s COP31 presidency is seeking to make faster electrification a central element of the conference’s outcome. Its proposed target is to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from just over 20% currently to 35% by 2035.

The initiative is intended to accelerate the use of electricity in sectors that continue to rely heavily on direct fossil fuel consumption. These include transport, buildings and industrial operations.

A greater role for electricity could support the adoption of electric vehicles, electric heating systems and electrically powered industrial equipment. It could also increase demand for renewable power generation, electricity storage, transmission networks and distribution infrastructure.

However, the proposal has prompted questions about the source of the additional electricity. The target does not, in itself, require all additional electricity demand to be met by renewable or other low-carbon generation. If electricity consumption rises while fossil-fuel-fired power generation remains substantial, the emissions benefits could be limited.

This distinction is central to the negotiations. Electrification can reduce direct fossil fuel use in transport, buildings and industry, but its climate impact depends partly on how the electricity is generated and delivered.

The COP31 presidency has presented its 35-by-35 initiative as a way to accelerate the transition across buildings, transport and industry, supported by modern electricity grids. The conference’s wider action agenda also addresses areas including waste, methane reduction, resilient buildings and green industrialisation.

Fossil fuel transition remains unresolved

Alongside the electrification proposal, governments are facing pressure to establish a clearer pathway for reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called on countries to stop treating the transition away from fossil fuels as an issue that cannot be addressed. He urged governments to establish clear timelines for the transition.

The issue remains contentious following the previous UN climate conference in Brazil, where countries failed to reach consensus on a global plan to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

The Brazilian COP presidency has continued to promote a roadmap intended to keep the issue central to international discussions. The proposal calls for countries to plan and assess their energy systems by 2028, followed by cooperation to reduce fossil fuel supply from 2031.

The roadmap provides a framework for further discussions, but it is not, by itself, a binding international agreement. Governments at COP31 still need to address differences over the pace, scope and practical arrangements of any transition.

For energy producers, utilities and industrial companies, the outcome matters because a more clearly defined transition pathway could influence long-term investment decisions involving power generation, fuel supply, infrastructure and industrial technology.

UN report highlights widening emissions challenge

The negotiations are taking place as the latest assessment from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that global warming is on course to exceed the 1.5°C threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, published in October, says that even the most optimistic pathway assessed would involve a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C level. Under its lowest-possible overshoot scenario, global temperatures would peak at approximately 1.7°C to 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around the middle of the century before returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

To follow that pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels. The report also identifies a need for increasing carbon dioxide removal over the course of the century.

The findings underline the gap between existing national commitments and the emissions reductions required. They also add pressure on governments to move beyond broad climate declarations and establish measurable policies, investment plans and implementation schedules.

US absence adds to diplomatic challenge

The United States is not participating in COP31 for the second consecutive year, following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the country from international climate cooperation after returning to office in 2025.

The absence is significant because the US is the world’s largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases. Its position also affects the diplomatic and financial context in which governments are discussing climate action.

However, other major economies and political blocs are represented at the conference. The scheduled participation of leaders and senior representatives from Brazil, China, the European Union and vulnerable island nations provides an opportunity for governments with different economic circumstances and climate priorities to set out their positions.

The challenge will be to translate those positions into areas of agreement that can be supported by a broad group of countries.

Electricity grids and investment will shape implementation

Beyond the political negotiations, the electrification target has important implications for energy infrastructure and industrial investment.

A substantial increase in electricity consumption would require investment across the power system. Renewable generation capacity would need to expand alongside transmission and distribution networks, storage facilities and technologies that can balance supply and demand.

Grid development is particularly important because additional generation capacity does not automatically translate into electricity being available where it is needed. Delays in transmission projects, limited grid connections and insufficient flexibility can restrict the integration of renewable power.

Industrial electrification also requires investment in equipment and processes. Manufacturers may need to replace fossil-fuel-based systems, upgrade facilities and secure reliable electricity supplies. Transport operators and building owners would face similar infrastructure and capital requirements as they adopt electric alternatives.

For businesses, the direction of COP31 discussions could therefore influence opportunities across renewable energy, grid equipment, battery storage, electric mobility, industrial efficiency and low-carbon technologies. The scale and timing of these opportunities will depend on national policies, financing availability and the pace of implementation.

COP31 faces an implementation test

The speeches by world leaders on 11 and 12 November are expected to provide political direction to negotiations, but the central challenge will be whether governments can agree on practical steps.

Turkey’s 35% electrification target offers a measurable objective for increasing electricity use. However, questions remain about the role of clean generation, the investment needed to expand grids and the relationship between electrification and a broader transition away from fossil fuels.

Brazil’s roadmap keeps fossil fuel supply reduction on the negotiating agenda, while the UNEP assessment highlights the scale of emissions cuts required over the next two decades.

The outcome of COP31 will be judged not only by the language included in any final agreement but also by whether countries establish credible timelines, financing arrangements and policies capable of delivering measurable changes to energy systems.

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