Trump, Xi and Putin Summit: 5 Key Issues Shaping Global Geopolitics

US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to hold their first three-way summit next week in Shenzhen, China, bringing together the leaders of the world’s three largest nuclear powers amid growing geopolitical and security tensions.

The White House confirmed that the meeting will take place on November 19 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which runs from November 18 to 19.

The planned discussions are expected to focus on nuclear weapons reduction and the war involving Iran. A senior US administration official said Washington does not expect an agreement to emerge from the meeting, describing it instead as the beginning of a conversation between the three countries.

The summit represents a significant diplomatic development as Washington seeks to engage both Beijing and Moscow on nuclear arms control, while the three governments maintain differing positions on international security, trade and regional conflicts.

Expiry of New START puts nuclear arms control in focus

Nuclear weapons reduction is expected to be a central subject at the meeting following the expiry of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) in February 2026.

The agreement was the last remaining treaty imposing limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia. Its expiry removed the treaty-based restrictions on the two countries’ nuclear weapons stockpiles for the first time in more than five decades.

Trump rejected Russia’s proposal to extend the agreement for another year, calling instead for a new arrangement that would include China.

The US administration has argued that any future nuclear arms control framework should account for China’s expanding arsenal. Pentagon estimates cited by the Associated Press put China’s nuclear stockpile at more than 600 warheads, compared with more than 5,000 each for the United States and Russia.

However, Beijing has shown limited interest in joining a nuclear agreement while its arsenal remains substantially smaller than those of Washington and Moscow.

The difference in the size of the three countries’ nuclear stockpiles is likely to complicate negotiations over the structure and terms of any future agreement.

Iran war expected to feature in discussions

Trump also intends to discuss the Iran war with Xi and Putin, according to a senior US official who briefed reporters ahead of the China visit.

The issue brings different strategic interests into the proposed meeting. Russia has developed closer military, intelligence and diplomatic ties with Tehran, while China has maintained significant economic and diplomatic engagement with Iran.

Washington’s interest in discussing the conflict with both countries reflects the broader international implications of the war, including regional security and energy-market stability.

However, the White House has not indicated that the three leaders are close to a joint position on the conflict.

Ukraine excluded from the planned trilateral agenda

Despite the continuing Russia-Ukraine war, a senior US official said Trump would avoid discussing the conflict during the three-way meeting.

The issue remains politically sensitive because Russia is seeking negotiations over Ukraine, while Kyiv has repeatedly opposed any settlement negotiated without its participation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concern that the Shenzhen meeting could become an opportunity for Washington, Beijing and Moscow to discuss a possible Ukraine settlement without involving Kyiv.

The planned summit has also attracted comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, where the leaders of the United States, Britain and the Soviet Union discussed the post-war European order.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the comparison, arguing that any agreements reached in Shenzhen could not be imposed on other countries.

His comments underline Moscow’s position that the proposed meeting should not be interpreted as an arrangement to determine the future of countries that are not represented.

China and Russia seek diplomatic advantages

The meeting offers Xi an opportunity to demonstrate China’s influence in international diplomacy, particularly as Beijing hosts the APEC summit.

For Putin, participation provides an opportunity to engage directly with the US president alongside Xi, reinforcing Russia’s position as a major international power despite its continuing conflict with Ukraine and tensions with Western governments.

The meeting also comes against the background of closer economic and strategic ties between China and Russia.

China has increased its importance as a trading partner for Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Its purchases of Russian energy and supply of technology-related products have become important elements of their bilateral relationship.

For Beijing, balancing relations with Washington and Moscow remains a central diplomatic challenge.

Expectations remain low for an immediate agreement

Although the three-way meeting is unprecedented, US officials have played down expectations of a major breakthrough.

The differences between the countries extend beyond nuclear weapons. Their positions on sanctions, regional conflicts, trade and international security are not aligned.

China has also been reluctant to accept nuclear restrictions designed around the much larger US and Russian arsenals.

The summit is therefore more likely to establish a channel for discussions than deliver an immediate agreement on nuclear disarmament or regional conflicts.

The outcome could nevertheless influence future diplomatic engagement among the three governments, particularly if the leaders agree to continue discussions on arms control.

The meeting is expected to take place towards the end of Trump’s China visit, after his separate discussions with Xi.

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