Oil Prices Today: Brent Falls to $114.10 as Peace Talks Raise Hopes
Oil prices fell on Thursday as renewed hopes for diplomatic engagement between the United States and Iran eased some concerns about potential supply disruptions, although continuing attacks and regional tensions limited the decline.
Brent crude futures fell by $1.22, or 1.1%, to $114.10 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.33, or 1.3%, to $101.45 at 0351 GMT, according to Reuters. The benchmarks had risen 1.3% and 3%, respectively, in the previous session.
The market response reflected competing influences: expectations that negotiations could resume reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, while the threat of further attacks on energy infrastructure and regional escalation continued to support prices.
US-Iran diplomatic efforts weigh on prices
US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sought to revive negotiations by sending a letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter.
Qatari mediators had also presented Iran with a draft agreement intended to end the war involving the United States and Israel. However, a senior Iranian official described the proposals as unacceptable ideas rather than a formal offer, according to the Reuters report.
Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran remained willing to give diplomacy a chance, leaving the prospect of negotiations open but without confirming that an agreement was imminent.
Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities, said selling pressure reflected expectations that peace talks might resume, although the decline in prices remained limited.
Houthi attacks keep supply concerns elevated
Security risks across the Middle East continued to complicate the outlook. A Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed a ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi movement towards Saudi Arabia’s eastern region.
Yemeni government forces also said the Houthis had attacked Aden airport on Wednesday. A day earlier, the group claimed to have struck Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery with a missile. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported refinery strike.
The facility has a stated capacity of 550,000 barrels per day. Any sustained disruption to a major refinery or related energy infrastructure could affect regional fuel supply and market expectations, although the report did not establish that the refinery had stopped operating.
Traders are also monitoring the risk of further military action involving Iran. The possibility of escalation has helped limit the extent to which diplomatic developments have reduced oil prices.
Russian refining recovery adds another factor
Expectations of higher Russian crude and diesel production also weighed on market sentiment.
JPMorgan analysts said there had been no further confirmed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure since a strike on the Ryazan refinery on 15 October. They estimated that Russian refinery runs had recovered by 350,000 barrels per day in the previous week to 4 million barrels per day.
The analysts said a recovery in refining activity could allow Russian crude production to increase from a recent level of 8.4 million barrels per day, which they described as the lowest since 2003. However, higher production would not necessarily translate into an equivalent increase in crude exports.
The potential recovery in Russian supply therefore represents a further variable for oil markets, alongside developments in the Middle East and expectations for global demand.
US crude inventories fall while gasoline stocks rise
US inventory data offered a mixed signal for the market.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended 23 October. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected inventories to increase by 15,000 barrels.
By contrast, gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels, compared with expectations for a decline of 900,000 barrels.
The reduction in crude stocks can indicate tighter availability within the measured US inventory system, while the increase in gasoline stocks points to a different balance in the refined-fuel market. Neither figure alone determines the direction of global oil prices, which remain sensitive to supply risks, demand expectations and geopolitical developments.
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